Tempo Manas

The Dili Beach Hotel.

First thing about this place you will notice is the large numbers of TVs. It’s a sports bar and it serves its purpose with aplomb. Cold drinks, decent food and three different codes of footy on at the same time. AFL, NRL and Rugby Union on different screens broadcast at the same time. Brilliant. Great way to wind down on a Saturday evening. Felt a bit ridiculous but why not indulge a bit? I was really there only for the AFL but it was the first Sydney derby and it wasn’t much of a game. The only one on too this weekend – round one. Looking forward to normal service resuming. Expect a decent crowd out for the games – just gotta avoid the Collingwood games; for obvious reasons.

I plan to put up a photos page pretty soon so you all can get a sense of what it’s like on the campaign trail. Won’t get too wordy on this page I promise. 

The campaigning for the second round of the presidential election begins on Friday, 30 March. There’s only two candidates, TMR and Lu Olo, but with over two weeks of campaigning before the actual polls on Monday, 16 April, there will be plenty for me to keep an eye on. 

I have got the itch to get out Dili. Not that there is anything wrong with Dili, it’s just that I’ve been here for almost two month (gosh it’s gone quickly – 1/3^rd of my time here) and only been out once to the other districts (Liquica). Spending a few days out with each of the campaigns in other districts will help satisfy this craving. Dili is so different from the rest of the country, and I really want to get a better/broader perspective on life and conditions here in Timor-Leste. 

Tempo Manas:

Hot Temperature – in the literal sense it’s not too hot here in Dili. And Dili can get very hot. It’s technically the rainy season but there hasn’t been much in the last week. But when it rains, it really does rain. No, it’s reasonably comfortable weather wise. My place is up in the hills a bit which helps, too. Can’t sleep with the AC on, using the overhead fan, which keeps things pretty comfortable. Sleeping okay once I get to sleep. Finding it hard to relax, always thinking about my research here. Starting to read some novels to help me to take my mind off it. Starting to enjoy reading again. Going through two fiction: The Secret Agent by Joseph Conrad and Trainspotting by Irvine Welsh. Started reading Xanana’s autobiography as well. 

I digress, the tempo manas reference is a metaphor. The hot season relates to the political climate. It’s hard to gauge but things at least on the surface seem pretty calm in Dili. People seem to have accepted the 1^st round results and got on with their lives. The elections were generally regarded as a success. No major or systemic incidents of violence or fraud. The turnout was a bit under 80% of registered voters. 

Double registration of voters does partly explain this figure, which is lower than previous polls I think. Possibly the biggest factor that has reduced voter turnout is a terrible piece of legislation that requires people to return to their home districts in order to vote. There is a way around this but it is a bureaucratic nightmare, lots of paperwork. This legislation makes life difficult for many people, especially in Dili. So many people come from the districts for work in Dili. Urbanisation is exclusively centred on the capital and the numbers I believe are significant. I don’t have them on hand. Just from personal experience, I could feel that Dili from election day had lost a sizable chunk of its population. Dili was almost a ghost town on election day and it has only gradually returned to normal, it probably took a week to return to its regular schedule.

Voting really shouldn’t cost people anything. Attaining independence and implementing democracy here has cost so much already – it shouldn’t be an issue for people over whether or not to vote. But it does. The financial costs involved themselves can be prohibitively high. With so few jobs all income is valuable and voters must weigh up whether it is worth it. It costs to travel, then there is lost income from not working. Lots of people squat, especially students, and they risk losing somewhere to live if they go away. 

One of the biggest effects electorally speaking is the differentiated results on voter turnout on people who come from the further out districts to the East. These are the districts were a lot of the students who come to Dili come from. It takes longer to travel to the East and the argument is that this hurts FRETLIN more than any other party. FRETILIN’s stronghold traditionally is in the East. This legislation was implemented recently by the CNRT led AMP government. A cynic would have you believe that this was a deliberate strategy to weaken FRETILN’s vote. I’ll leave that one up to you.

FRETLIN still did very well in the East, and TMR did reasonably well to. He seems to have attracted at least some of the veteran vote, and others, who would have normally voted for FRETILIN. Fortunately there are a lot of people coming out demanding changes to the legislation. Even across the parties that are involved in the AMP government, there are plenty of noises being made about the need for change. JRH has strongly made this argument, too. I can’t see any reason not to change, it removes discrimination from those who would otherwise make sacrifices to vote in a system where the districts don’t make any difference anyway. The whole of Timor-Leste is treated as a single constituency, results in districts are irrelevant to the overall result.

Getting back to tempo manas. There have been some reports of road blocks going up and ID’s being checked. Political affiliation does matter here and it could be a source of tension. Some areas of Dili are dominated by one or another party and being from another party or being perceived as being associated with a different party could mean trouble. The results from the 1^st round have not triggered any negative response overall, but the 2^nd one will determine the winner. Time will tell if the results are accepted. Chest beating and confident declarations of certain victory do not help the situation, they inflame expecations and set up conditions for supports of the losing candidate to perhaps feel they were robbed. I feel that the results could be very close and this could be a problem. If it’s a finely balanced victory I worry that the knowledge that you got so close but still failed may be a catalyst for trouble. A clear cut winner may be the more desirable outcome - but then again, this is all speculation and the reverse may be true (or both). I certainly don’t make any confident predictions about anything here. I’ve barely spent any time here. In addition, I’m not sure if anyone knows what’s going on. The conditions exist for things to go South here, I really hope that things go smoothly, but I will keep my ear to the ground. Everyone and their dog has an opinion on what could or will happen here, so the only thing certain is that we cannot be certain about anything. In the meantime, I will stock up on provisions for the house just in case. I’m off for dinner. Have a good night.

Peace, Evan

Brand Xanana Inc.

Tonight I want to talk about:

Brand Xanana. XG inc. is like a brand for a product. Put his name on it, and it is successful and popular. CNRT is XG. Without him, CNRT would not have existed in the first place, and its future depends on him and his reputation. There is a XG sports centre, a XG library. He is not popular with everyone it must be noted. He is a divisive figure for sure. As president he was a counterpoint to the FRETILIN government that ruled with a majority of parliamentary seats. His role as president had little direct effect on the practice of government, the president is formally very limited in what he or she can do according to the constitution. Symbolically, however, the president can make a lot of noise, discuss things that the government would want to keep silent. This is the major reason for the political falling out between XG and JRH during the last five years. XG and CNRT now support TMR's campaign for presidency:

JRH’s criticism of the AMP, CNRT led, government created a lot of tension between the president and prime minister.XG’s role in the first government was important because FRETILN did have a monopoly on the executive and parliament. Some balance between these state institutions was crucial in this context. Setting himself in opposition to FRETILIN during that period set him on course to form a viable party political alternative in the 2007 elections. Having two strong parties was a good development in the development of a stable and health multiparty system. His personality, and everything that goes with it, his historical role in the resistance – which is absolutely amazing and worthy of the highest praise – carried a lot of support, particularly for people who wanted to open up the political space in Timor-Leste. 

He represented a continuation of the legacy of the resistance, both in himself and the party that took on the name of the organisation that – established in 1998 - was responsible for the successful struggle for independence. The CNRT was an umbrella organisation that included all the forces in Timor striving for independence. FRETILIN was a major player in it, but not the only one. The disjunction between XG and FRETILIN goes back to the early 1980’s. XG, as the leader of FRETILN politically and military wanted to broaden the resistance movement and include all the national forces who wanted to be involved. This was resisted by some and an ultimately unsuccessful coup was attempted. This issue has never completely disappeared, it has tainted relations between XG and FRETILN ever since. And then in 1987, the forerunner to CNRT was created, the CNRM. It was an inclusive nationalist movement that fitted with XG’s vision for the future. He also split the military wing from FRETILIN and turned it into an inclusive and non-partisan force – FALINTIL. These events have shaped relations and the structures of the political forces operating in Timor up until this day. FRETILN envisioned itself as the sole legitimate organisation that should run Timor-Leste. XG saw it very differently. Opening the political space up in 2007 was a healthy move and he was able to harness part of the support that saw its loyalties with the legacy of the resistance but either saw their support belonging to him and/or with an alternative party to FRETILIN.

The constituency that supports CNRT is not that different from that of FRETILN. The vote for FRETILIN in 2001 was just under 60%. The combined vote for FRETILN and CNRT in 2007 came suspiciously close to that figure as well. Part of this broader constituency shifted its support to XG. Without XG, CNRT would not have existed and he carries it. He is the face of it. Many people seem to be loyal to XG and he is their figurehead. One obvious danger, which I’ve already identified previously, related to the institutional strength of parties. Parties that rely on charismatic leaders to attract and maintain support have a tendency to be weaker in their structural strength. If the appropriate organisation and structure internal to the party are not built, and they do not have strong roots in society, they put themselves at risk of fragmentation when the leader leaves the leadership position eventually. A cult of personality may also make it difficult for a party to develop a clear ideological and policy position on issue. If the leader makes all the decision based on his preferences, and not on the needs and input of its base, it will lack an identity after the leader leaves.

The resources and support of the party could well break up into fiefdoms of underlings who scrap for the remaining pieces. Much like Alexander’s empire when he died, party officials may go their own way and cause the dissolution of the organisation. This has occurred with ASDT, which I mentioned in a previous blog. I would like to really find out more about CNRT and see if it has what it takes to be a real party. Brand XG may see it through the next five years, it may win government, and his endorsement of TMR for president may also be successful, but the long term viability of the party is far from certain. I have a huge respect for XG for everything he did and went through during the occupation. And the role he played in the first government, while not perfect, was critical in attempting to keep FRETILIN in check. I do have serious reservations on his ability to be an effective PM, I worry that he does not have the requisite skills, knowledge and experience to be in that role and face the challenges in TL. The stories that float around about the role of his advisors and the plans he has for the country, particularly for development and the expenditure of the petroleum money concerns me greatly. Another topic for another night. Good night!

Ev.

Some Reflections

Where to start?

I’m gonna start with my thoughts on the provisional results of the 1^st round of the presidential election. The results went according to what most people expected, including myself – at least for the two candidates with the most votes. FRETILIN look very organised and determined so Lu Olo’s first place in the polls was not surprising either. Without CNRT’s support, it would a lot tougher for TMR. He still may have made it but it probably would have been a close run thing. 

Most of this is speculation but it seems that CNRT’s vote is not particularly strong, well, it doesn’t seem to have exceeded the results from 2007. CNRT’s support for JRH in 2007 would be hard to disaggregate from his broader appeal but CNRT’s support in parliament in 2007 was in the low 20’s. We don’t know how much support TMR would have received outside of CNRT’s backing but his 25% of the vote only just beats CNRT’s vote in the 2007 parliamentary polls. 

My feeling is that FRETILIN’s results are quite impressive, particularly as TMR has leached much of the vote FRETILN probably would have received some veterans or other associated with the resistance, particularly from the east.

What happens in the second round will be hard to predict. The big questions will hover over JRH and Lasama. Both look like getting around 17-18% of the vote. JRH has sent signals that he is not happy with CNRT and XG, but he may not officially endorse a candidate. 

Lasama may officially back XG and TMR but the grass roots of PD may not go along with that uniformly. Lobato was the only other candidate with any real support – about 5% -  so that could be important as well. Being ex FRETILIN won’t mean that he necessarily backs Lu Olo, personal relationships, falling outs and alliances with others make things hard to predict. 

Finally, FRENTI Mudanca. This is a breakaway party from FRETILIN. It’s a new party formed by a small group of people from FRETIILN disenchanted and frustrated with what they see as a lack of change and reform in FRETIILN, particularly from the leadership caste. They want change, an orientation focused on a range of political and economic issues in Timor-Leste. This reform manifested itself in an attempt to change the leadership of FRETILN in 2006, which failed. This breakaway is led by Jose Luis Guterres (LuGu) a former diplomat in the employ of FRETILN during the resistance. LuGu appears to have attracted about 2% of the vote. 

Given it is a new movement and the number of candidate involved in the polls, this low vote is not surprising. I attended a rally of theirs and I was impressed with the turnout and organisation of the campaign. I thought they would have received more of the vote based on this but this leads to a bigger issue I want to discuss.

Rally sizes can be misleading. Small crowds don’t necessarily indicate the support candidates will receive. JRH had small turnouts in the district of Liquica, but he did very well there, he won the district quite well. Big turnouts for LuGu in Dili didn’t result in many votes. Of course, each district is different and supporters seem to travel around a bit to bolster rallies. The close geographical proximity of district makes it easy for campaigns to bring the same supporters along to rallies in different districts. The FRETILIN rally in DIli was enormous, but much of it came from at least one district in the east. 

Another matter is that of the spectator/festival factor. It’s something to do. Particularly in Dili with many unemployed young people, going to a rally is something to get involved in that is exciting and gives a sense of identity, meaning and validation. These events are like a festival or concert; come with your friends, get dressed up in the appropriate gear, get on your bikes and make a lot of noise. Some rallies provide transport, food, drinks (and sometimes money according to some accounts). People might go along to several different rallies held by different candidates. Turning up and shouting Viva Lasama doesn’t mean they will (or can – given the age of many of the participants). Stories abound of the same people turning up to rallies for different candidates and cheering them along. Viva Lu Olo one day, Viva TMR another day, Viva Lasama, Viva Lobato etc. You get the idea. Voter support is hard to gauge. Can’t judge it by observing the turnout of one rally. 

What I think I can take from what I have observed so far: FRETILN is back and will do at least as well as in 2007, CNRT doesn’t look like it will do any better than in 2007. PD is looking in good health and will be an important player in determining the president and shape of government. The other small parties may have little or no say in this regard. The large number of parties participating in the parliamentary elections is incredible, 24 – 8 more than 2007. This is a matter for at least one more blog, but the nature of the electoral model, money politics, personalities, representation, and development all relate to it. I’ll just foreshadow these aspects for the moment for later discussion.

For my next blog I will provide an overview of the campaigns and rallies I saw in the last three weeks. There’s so much I want to write, yikes, hard to contain it or express it all. 

Otherwise… I’m in pretty good shape. Shaking off a cold. Decided to join a gym. Not really getting any exercise here and I think it will help improve both my physical and mental health. Looking forward to writing more soon. Hope this finds you well.

Ate Amanha.

Maun Evan

Waiting for the results to come in.

The ballot papers are currently being counted and I estimate they are about 25% of the way there as I write this. Probably still too early to tell but there are indications that Lu Olo and TMR will make it through to the second round. Not terribly surprised if this eventuated, the lack of direct party support for JRH appears to have really damaged his chances. Party backing appears to be very important for candidates if they want to really have a chance here. Having said that, the amount of support he is accruing, which at this time is not that far of the lead candidates, is quite impressive. JRH is evidently popular at a personal level – his standing attained through his diplomatic efforts during the occupation and his achievements in the first government 2002-2007 as foreign minister and prime minister, then as president 2007-2012. The fragmentation of ASDT/Bloc Proklamador after the death of Xavier do Amaral and the campaign by JRH to direct votes from these organisations to himself is another factor that assisted his cause. 

This would be hard to track though because the splintering of these two organisations was very chaotic. Various people claimed to be the true representative of these organisations and the direction of their supporters’ votes was divided among several of the other candidates. JRH certainly made a big effort to associate himself with do Amaral, whose personal vote had been 17% and 14% in the previous presidential polls, this poster being an ostentatious example of this:

JRH (left) and do Amaral (right) Rough translation: Xavier and all supporters of the ASDT Party support JRH. President for peace and national unity.

The fragmentation of ASDT/Bloc Proklamador touches on an issue I am considering in regard to the weak institutional nature of the party system here. FRETILIN is not included in this category. While it has a strong leadership in the shape of Alkatiri and Lu Olo, it is structurally very sound and with deep roots in society across the country. The handover of leadership to the next in line, when that eventually happens, should not really effect the party itself. 

I have little confidence this would occur with the other parties. ASDT has demonstrated how dependent it was on a charismatic leader to hold it together. With do Amaral’s passing, it has disintegrated. Weak institutional strength was probably at the heart of it, with various people or factions fighting over the inheritance of the party. ASDT has traditionally been seen as a party that was formed from the Mambai people of central Timor, though do Amaral did attract support from across Timor given his historical role in the independence movement. Will ASDT recover and reform? Will there be a new party to represent the Mambai people, or will it melt into other parties?

Parties don’t seem to be formed around specific ethno-linguistic groups for the most part. While some parties like FRETILIN have their strongholds in certain areas (they are particularly strong in the east) they also draw support more broadly. This support is not identified with the interests or orientations of the various ethno-linguistic groups, politics doesn’t seem to be a platform or vehicle for the expression of such matters.

CNRT: established by XG in 2007 to run as an alternative to FRETILIN, it was able to form a coalition government and has stayed in power until now. There is a lot of discussion about the relationship between XG and CNRT. Is it purely a political vehicle for him? Will it survive after he leaves politics? How strong are the institutional foundations of CNRT? It is hard to tell. CNRT is inseparable from the image and reputation of XG. CNRT is XG, XG is CNRT. That’s the impression I’m picking up anyway. This would suggest that there is daylight between XG and CNRT, without his personality and direction, CNRT might really struggle. CNRT draws on, in terms of its support, a similar constituency to that of FRETILIN. The use of CNRT itself is a deliberate wink and a nod to the CNRT – different acronym – of the late 1990’s that oversaw the final period that led to independence. Frustration with FRETILN in 2007 and the need of a viable opposition, or alternative government, led to the new CNRT’s creation. 

XG has a strong personal following. A double edged sword – the success or failure of CNRT rests on this following. CNRT might be able to continue if it works at developing itself internally and forming relationships at the grass roots level. I can’t see XG running again, this will be his last tilt, along with JRH and Alkatiri. These elder statesman are at the upper end of the ’75 generation. CNRT will have to work hard to develop into a party that can survive into a new world with new leaders. Of course, this discussion is mostly speculation, a matter for 4-5 years in the future. Questions could be asked though about the structure of the party as it currently stands. With the right effort, CNRT could continue with relying on XG, but on what basis. This is another problem of charismatic leaders keeping parties afloat. Could infighting over its leadership led to a similar situation as ASDT? There must be questions I can advance to CNRT as it stands that would give some indication one way or another…

Other parties? My feeling is they suffer the same problem of ASDT, perhaps not to the same degree… The guys – and I mean guys, men, party politics is dominated by men, another topic to be addressed… none of the big parties have women at the top of the leadership caste, and only a few of the smaller ones are headed by women – like Lasama of PD and LuGu of FRENTI Mudanca, are relatively younger and aren’t associated so much with the armed resistance movement. 

LuGu was a diplomat and Lasama was involved in the student/youth resistance movement. Given the prominence of strong personalities in the resistance movement, it’s natural that they get a lot of attention and personal allegiance according to their respective roles… but this reliance of personalities to carry parties is dangerous. Party structures, policy and ideology need to be developed, Timor-Leste has so many challenges to face and parties should be developing around different ideas of how to address these challenges. Party politics needs to develop and discussions about the way forward, not just about candidates respective roles during the occupation. Another topic I am itching to scratch…. Gonna take a break. Check the scores.

Normal Service has Resumed

It's good to be back.

It's been over two weeks since I last posted and I feel like I have been neglectful of my project here.

It's been a busy two weeks. I've been fighting off a cold for the last week or so. Nothing too serious, took a couple of days off. Was on the lookout for fever and other symptoms of Dengue but fortunately it this wasn't the case.

Another thing that took up some time and delayed this post was the energy I put into creating this website with a few people about the elections. It's designed as a clearing house for a large range of information that relates to various aspects of the elections in Timor-Leste. Please take a look:

https://sites.google.com/site/timorlesteelections2012/home

The elections themselves, of course, are going on the moment and were the primary reason I have not been posting here. Following the last two weeks or so of election campaigning for the office of president have taken up most of my time and energy. So glad the first round of the polls is tomorrow and I can catch up on what's been going on. I'll get to this - there's a lot to cover - soon.

I hope you'll be patient with me putting up more material. There is so much to cover. It will take some time.

Be back soon.

Maun Evan

Experiencing Technical Difficulties: Shouldn't be too long